How not to play a 5/2

Game position.


First to five , black holding a 2 cube, white to play with a roll of 5-2 . Scroll to the bottom of the page for the right answer.

The correct play here is to break the 8 point leaving a blot there!

This play was shown to many people at the Fort Lauderdale backgammon tournament and only M. Corbett got the right answer.(According to Snowie).
Here are some additional points from Mr J. Brown:

I got this play all wrong but I can now see why leaving blots can be useful . I only looked at moving the inside or the outside points.

The 8 point is better than the 9 if you consider the possibility of blotting once the opposing players 4 is covered. The risk of equity loss is quite small. Every number bar the 1 will bring 2 in from the 8 and you need to have a number bar 1 or 2 to bring 2 in from the 9. Timing looks like it will play a large role in most common variations.

If your blot is not hit then you have 2 ´s and 5´s to make the 8. There are only 8 numbers that hit and cover for White and blacks return hits are powerful. Even moving in without hitting will create a timing advantage when you are down in the race. There are various hitting numbers that will leave 2 or even 3 blots that may not be used as the return hits will do to much damage.

This is a very good position to test you on how well you see all possible plays.